27th June

According today’s lecture, I have achieved more clear knowledge of  “driver of change” and how we constructed the scenarios. However I during my research, I have learned that we look out into the future, trying our best to make wise decisions, however, the rest of the stampeding world will not wait until certainty appears. Anything that can help make a decision in the midst of uncertainty will be valuable. One such tool is scenario planning. A growing number of corporate executives are using scenario planning to make big, hard decisions more effectively. And it’s not just for bigwigs: scenario planning can help us at a personal level as well. That is an effective way to reduce the cost of “failture” of a design business.

In addition, I like the required video because the speaker offered a clear presentation with a logical content. That remind me how the presentation skills important in a design business. However, this video delivers a piercing challenge to established economic principles, explaining how we might stop feeding the crises and start investing in our future. Moreover, this video lets me considers key drivers of change which might have an impact on the future, including natural, social, political, economic, cultural, or technological aspects, and how those aspects related to each other.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the world’s demand for energy is going to increase by nearly 50 percent by 2035. Based on EIA projections, this graphic from API’s 2012 State of American Energy report shows that oil and natural gas is expected to supply 52 percent of that energy, only slightly less than today’s share. This means finding and producing oil and natural gas will remain critical to the global economy in the decades ahead.

Reference:

Boyle, D. & Simms, A. 2009, ‘Markets: Why has London traffic always travelled at 12 mph?’’ in the new economics: a bigger picture, Sterling, VA, London. Chapter 5 – pages 65-76.

Tim Jackson’s economic reality check, 2009 <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NZsp_EdO2Xk&gt;

Steve McConnell: Design Futures Council Leadership Summit on Sustainable Design, 2011 <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q1iznN0RYWk&gt;

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